"Expert RA" expects that by the end of the year, there will be fewer than 300 banks left in Russia.

In 2024, the Central Bank revoked six licenses, while another six banks voluntarily ceased their operations or merged with other institutions. As of January 1, there were 312 banking organizations operating in Russia. "We expect that in 2025, slightly more than 12 players will exit the market, resulting in the number of market participants dropping below 300," RBC quotes Ksenia Yakushkina, the director of banking ratings at "Expert RA." She noted that the ratio of license revocations to other reasons, such as reorganization or voluntary surrender of licenses, could be 50-50. It is specified that non-bank credit organizations were not included in the forecast. Analysts emphasize that there is potential for further consolidation in the banking market. They believe that in the conditions of tightening regulation and growing competition, banks without a clear business model and a stable customer base will find it difficult to maintain profitability after the reduction of the key rate. It is expected that by the end of 2024, the concentration of assets in the top 10 banks will reach a historical maximum of 79.8%. Yakushkina added that the announced reorganization deals for 2025 are more likely aimed at business development through mergers. Earlier reports indicated that by the end of last year, physical gold reserves in Russian banks had significantly decreased to less than 40 tons due to high interest rates and record prices of precious metals. As of January 1 of the current year, there were over 325 billion rubles in accounts reflecting balances in precious metals, with the volume of gold amounting to 38.1 tons, the lowest level since July 2022.

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