“Kommersant”: bread will rise in price due to low grain production

Gross wheat harvest in Russia in 2025, according to forecasts, will decrease by 4.7%, to 78.7 million tons. In 2024, this figure has already fallen by 11% to 82.6 million tons. “The negative trend is dictated by a decrease in sown areas, grain yield, profitability of farmers and weather fluctuations,” the newspaper writes, referring to the words of Sovecon Director Andrei Sizov. According to Sizov, the growth in the cost of wheat in world markets played a role. “Due to the decline in wheat production in Russia, there is a high risk of rising prices for flour milling-quality food wheat,” writes Kommersant with reference to Lut’s letter to the president. It is noted that the share of flour in the cost of bread is 18-25%, the growth of grain prices pushes bread to rise in price. For a month, the cost of bread products for retail chains was raised by such large manufacturers as "Karavai" and BKH "Kolomensky". Grain prices may be higher than the maximum prices of 15.6 thousand rubles per ton of wheat of the third class and 15.1 thousand rubles of the fourth class. If these indicators are achieved, the state will intervene to stabilize prices. As of February 2025, the price of third-class wheat is 14.3 thousand rubles per ton, which indicates an increase in this indicator by 0.6% during the month and by 11.3% from year to year, follows from the data of the Ministry of Agriculture. The increase in prices of fourth-class wheat increased to 13.8 thousand rubles per ton, it amounted to 1.9% and 20%, respectively, Kommersant points out. At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia told Vesti that in 2025, according to the government order, the sale of up to 3 million tons of grain from the intervention fund is allowed. As of March 6, 77,000 tons were sold, indicating that there was no shortage. “This indicates the absence of both a shortage of these products at affordable prices, and the need to increase the volume of the fund’s sales,” the ministry said in a statement. The ministry notes the stability of selling prices for third-class wheat and a 0.5% decrease in the cost of wheat flour among producers over the past month. However, interventions remain an effective way to ensure price stability in the market for grain and processed products. "The fund's reserves are food wheat with consumer properties exceeding the average market indicators, which allows, if necessary, to sell it at comfortable prices to flour milling and bakery enterprises," the Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement. The production of all domestic flour requires no more than 13 million tons, which is much less than the harvested last year, according to data from the Russian Union of flour milling and cereal enterprises. Earlier, the head of the agro-industrial complex committee of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Petr Chekmarev noted that grain harvest in Russia in 2025 will decrease and will not exceed 120 million tons due to bad weather conditions. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia reduced duties on the export of Russian wheat by 11% - from 4,430.1 rubles to 3,941.6 rubles per ton.

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